Price analysis 6/17: BTC, ETH, BNB, ADA, XRP, SOL, DOGE, DOT, LEO, AVAX
Bitcoin price struggles to hold support at $20,000, and the outcome of this battle between bulls and bears will determine the next directional move.
The sharp fall in cryptocurrencies has pulled the total crypto market capitalization below $900 billion. According to CoinGoLive, 72 out of the top 100 tokens have declined in excess of 90% from their all-time highs. In comparison, the top-10 coins have outperformed during the fall, dropping an average of 79% from their all-time high.
Bitcoin (BTC) is down more than 70% from its all-time high but the bulls are struggling to arrest the decline. Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro of Fidelity, highlighted that Bitcoin could be “cheaper than it looks” considering the metric of price-to-network ratio, which is similar to the price-to-earnings ratio used in the equities market to value a stock.
Billionaire investor Mark Cuban said in an interview with Fortune that projects without valid business prospects will vanish as bear markets have a cleansing effect on the market. However, he added that innovation in the crypto sector is likely to continue during the market downturn.
Could Bitcoin and major altcoins hold their respective support levels? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
The bulls are attempting to keep Bitcoin above the psychological support of $20,000 but they are facing strong resistance at $23,362. This suggests that the bears have not given up and that they continue to sell on rallies.
The longer the time spent near $20,000, the greater the possibility of a break below it. If bears sink the price below $20,000, the BTC/USDT pair could witness panic selling. That could pull the price to $17,500 and then to $16,000.
The one ray of hope for the buyers is that the relative strength index (RSI) has dipped into deeply oversold levels. This suggests that a relief rally is possible in the short term. If bulls drive the price above $23,362, the pair could rally to the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($26,574).
Ether (ETH) is in a firm bear grip. The bulls bought the dip to $1,014 on June 15, as seen from the long tail on the day’s candlestick. However, the recovery was short-lived as the bears pulled the price back below $1,100 on June 16.
If bears sink the price below $1,000, the selling pressure could accelerate and the ETH/USDT pair could plummet to $900. Although the downsloping moving averages indicate advantage to bears, the deeply oversold level on the RSI suggests that a relief rally may be around the corner.
The bulls will have to push and sustain the price above $1,268 to start a sustained recovery. Above this level, the pair could rise to the 20-day EMA ($1,547) where the bears may again mount a strong resistance.
BNB is consolidating near the crucial support of $211 since June 13. The bulls started a recovery on June 15 but that fizzled out at $237 on June 16.
If the price slips below the $211 to $198 support zone, the BNB/USDT pair could start the next leg of the downtrend. The pair could then slide to $186 and later plummet toward the strong support at $150.
On the other hand, if the price rebounds off the $211 support, the buyers will try to propel the pair above $237. If they succeed, the pair could rally to the 20-day EMA ($265). This is an important level to watch out for because a break and close above it will suggest that the pair may have bottomed out.
Cardano (ADA) bounced off $0.44 on June 14 and bulls pushed the price to the 20-day EMA ($0.54) on June 15. The bears defended this level aggressively and the price turned down on June 16.
The price is stuck between the 20-day EMA and $0.44 but this tight range trading is unlikely to continue for long. If buyers propel the price above the 20-day EMA, the ADA/USDT pair could rally to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($0.59). A break above this level could open the doors for a potential rally to the overhead zone between $0.69 and $0.74.
Alternatively, if the price turns down and plummets below $0.44, it will suggest that bears are back in the game. A break and close below $0.40 could start the next leg of the downward move.
Ripple (XRP) bounced off $0.29 on June 14 and reached $0.35 on June 15, which turned out to be stiff resistance. The buyers are again attempting to push the price above $0.35.
If they manage to do that, the XRP/USDT pair could rally to the breakdown level of $0.38. This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break and close above it could clear the path for a possible rally to the 50-day SMA ($0.44). The positive divergence on the RSI indicates that the bears may be losing their grip.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the current level and slips below $0.29, it will suggest the resumption of the downtrend. The next support on the downside is $0.24.
Solana (SOL) attempted a recovery on June 15, which hit a barrier at the breakdown level of $35. The price turned down on June 16 but the bulls are attempting to defend the level at $30.
The buyers will make one more attempt to push the price above the overhead zone between $35 and the 20-day EMA ($37). If they succeed, the SOL/USDT pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($52).
Conversely, if the price turns down from the overhead zone, it will suggest that bears continue to sell at resistance levels. The bears will then try to sink the pair below $26 and resume the downtrend. The next support on the downside is $22 and then $20.
Dogecoin (DOGE) is consolidating in a downtrend. The buyers defended the psychological level at $0.05 and attempted a relief rally on June 15 but they could not sustain the higher levels. This suggests that bears continue to sell on rallies
The buyers are attempting to arrest the decline near $0.06 on June 17. If they succeed, the DOGE/USDT pair could resume its recovery.
A break above the June 15 intraday high could clear the path for a possible rally to the 20-day EMA ($0.07). If bulls overcome this barrier, the DOGE/USDT pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($0.09).
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and breaks below the critical support at $0.05, it will suggest the start of the next leg of the downtrend. The pair could then decline to $0.04.
Polkadot (DOT) rallied sharply on June 15 and reached the 20-day EMA ($8.62) but the bulls could not overcome this resistance. This indicates that bears are active at higher levels.
The price turned down sharply on June 16 and has dropped near the critical support zone between $7.30 and $6.36. The buyers are expected to defend this zone aggressively because a failure to do so could resume the downtrend toward $4.23.
If the price rebounds off the support zone, it will suggest accumulation at lower levels. The buyers will then make one more attempt to push the price above the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do that, the DOT/USDT pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($10.54).
UNUS SED LEO (LEO) continues to trade inside the descending channel. The bears pulled the price below the moving averages on June 15 but failed to extend the decline to the support line.
The buyers are attempting to push the price back toward the moving averages. If the price turns down from this resistance, it could increase the prospects of a retest of the support line of the channel. A break and close below this level could intensify selling.
Conversely, if buyers push the price above the moving averages, the LEO/USD pair could rise to the resistance line. This is an important level for the bears to defend because a break and close above it could suggest the start of a new up-move to $6.25.
Avalanche (AVAX) is consolidating in a downtrend and the bulls are attempting to defend the support at $14.50. The buyers tried to push the price toward the breakdown level of $21.35 on June 16 but the higher levels continue to attract selling.
If the price turns down and breaks below $14.50, it could signal the start of the next leg of the downtrend. The AVAX/USDT pair could then decline to $13.
On the contrary, if bulls successfully defend the $14.50 support, the pair could make another attempt to rise to $21.35. This is an important level to watch out for because the bears will try to flip it into resistance and pull the pair down to $14.50.
The buyers will have to push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA ($21.94) to signal a potential trend change.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.